Boston, Seattle and Ottawa are winning on hot goalies. Carolina, Utah and New Jersey are winning on the shot data. Vancouver, Philadelphia and Los Angeles are broken. Here are the numbers behind every call.
The Boston Bruins are 9-2-1 with the NHL's best goal differential (+22), but their 107.6 PDO is the highest in the league. That says this start is more lucky than dominant.
Every team has played 9 to 13 of 84 games, so treat every pace number below as a starting point, not a forecast. Records, points and player stats are official NHL data through Saturday, Oct 24. Expected-goals and PDO figures come from MoneyPuck.
Two terms first. PDO is a team's shooting percentage plus its save percentage at 5-on-5, scaled so 100 is average. Far above 100 usually means luck is helping. Expected goals (xG) estimate how many goals a team should score based on the quality of its shots. xG share is a team's cut of all expected goals at 5-on-5. Over 50% is good.
1. Boston Bruins: The NHL's biggest illusion?
Record: 9-2-1 | Goal differential: +22 | 5v5 PDO: 107.6
Boston's preseason points line was 87.5, with Cup odds around 100-1. Twelve games in, the Bruins are on a 133-point pace over the 84-game schedule.
The cause is percentages. Boston's 5v5 shooting is 12.6%, and its team save percentage is .950. Jeremy Swayman is .920 overall and has saved about 6.1 goals more than expected.
Boston is good. Its 55% xG share proves it. But its shot-attempt share is just 49%, so the Bruins aren't controlling games. Shooting percentage cools. Goalies have ordinary nights.
THE DIT VERDICT: OVERRATED BY THE STANDINGS. (Opinion, medium confidence.) Boston makes the playoffs, but a 133-point team? No. By Christmas, the gap between Boston and the rest of the Atlantic shrinks a lot.
2. Seattle Kraken: The clock is ticking
Record: 7-4-1 | 5v5 xG share: 43% | PDO: 104.3
Seattle's preseason line was 80.5 points. Seven wins in 12 games is a real surprise.
The 5v5 numbers are not. The Kraken have the NHL's lowest shot-attempt share (42%), and their 43% xG share is fifth-worst. They allow 31.8 shots per game, third most. A 104.3 PDO is the reason they're winning.
THE DIT VERDICT: SELL THE HYPE. (Opinion, high confidence.) Of the surprisingly good Western teams, Seattle is the one I'd bet to slide.
3. Carolina Hurricanes: What a real contender looks like
Record: 9-2-2 | 5v5 xG share: 60% | PDO: 99.7
Carolina, a 113-point team last year, doesn't need luck. Its 59% shot-attempt share and 60% xG share are both second in the league, and its PDO sits right at average. It takes 33.9 shots per game and allows 22.4.
Pyotr Kochetkov is 7-0-0 with a .916 save percentage.
THE DIT VERDICT: ABSOLUTELY REAL. (Opinion, high confidence.) Given a choice between Boston's goal differential and Carolina's shot data as a guide to the next 70 games, I take Carolina's.
4. Utah Mammoth: The surprise team nobody should ignore
Record: 8-4-0 | 5v5 xG share: 58% | Power play: 38.1% (1st)
Utah's preseason line was 96.5 points. The Mammoth are on a 112-point pace.
This is my favorite early story because luck isn't the cause. Utah's PDO is only 98.8, and its goaltending is below average (Karel Vejmelka is -4.6 goals saved above expected). The 58% xG share and 57% shot-attempt share come from playing well.
The 38.1% power play will cool. The penalty kill (66.7%) is a real problem. But unlike Seattle, Utah has a 5v5 base to fall back on.
THE DIT VERDICT: THE REAL DEAL. (Opinion, medium confidence.) Not a Cup contender yet, but a real playoff threat. If the goaltending improves, Utah is a bad matchup in the West.
5. New Jersey Devils: The NHL's most dangerous sleeper
Record: 7-4-0 | 5v5 xG share: 62% (1st) | PDO: 97.7
The Devils lead the NHL in 5v5 xG share (62%) and shot-attempt share (60%). Their shot rate is 34.1 for and 23.9 against per game. The results haven't followed: a 97.7 PDO means weak finishing and goaltending have cost them.
Then came Oct 23. New Jersey traded Dawson Mercer, Nico Daws, Nick Bjugstad, the rights to Alexander Command and two picks (2029 second, 2027 seventh) to Winnipeg for Connor Hellebuyck, a Vezina and Hart Trophy winner who had requested a trade and was suspended on Sept 16 for not reporting (CONFIRMED, Devils and NHL.com). ESPN reports the Devils' Cup odds moved from 25-1 to 14-1.
Hellebuyck still has to prove he's in game shape. But the logic is clear: this team already controls play, and now it has an elite goalie to turn that into wins.
THE DIT VERDICT: BUY NOW. (Opinion, medium confidence.) New Jersey has the best chance to climb in November and December. My bold call: the Devils finish ahead of Boston in the standings by Christmas. What would change my mind: Hellebuyck being slow to return, or Boston's PDO holding near 107.
6. Vancouver Canucks: This is a disaster, not bad luck
Record: 2-9-1 | Goal differential: -21 (worst in the NHL)
Vancouver averages 20.1 shots per game and allows 33.5. That is 13.4 extra shots against every night.
Kevin Lankinen is .812 and -12.1 goals saved above expected, the worst in the league by a wide margin. The penalty kill is 65.0%, also the worst. The 5v5 xG share is 38%.
THE DIT VERDICT: BROKEN. (Opinion, high confidence.) One hot goalie won't fix a team that can't shoot, can't defend and can't kill penalties.
7. Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Chicago: Three different disasters
Philadelphia (3-7-3, -18). The Flyers won a playoff round last season. Now their 37% xG share is the lowest in the NHL and they take 22.7 shots per game while allowing 31.5. That is real, not bad luck. Matvei Michkov has 8 goals on 19 shots, but one scorer can't fix this.
Los Angeles (2-5-2). The Kings' preseason line was 95.5 points, and they're on a 56-point pace in Peter Laviolette's first year. The penalty kill is 65.5%. They've played only nine games, but they've dug a hole in the West.
Chicago (3-7-0). The Blackhawks take 21.4 shots per game and convert 10.3% of their power plays, last in the league.
THE DIT VERDICT: SERIOUS TROUBLE. (Opinion.) Philadelphia has the worst underlying numbers. Los Angeles has the biggest gap between expectation and results. Chicago isn't creating offense.
8. Montreal Canadiens: Better than the record?
Record: 5-3-2 | 5v5 xG share: 54% | PDO: 97.9
Montreal controls 57% of 5v5 shot attempts and 54% of expected goals, and its PDO is 97.9. That's the opposite of Boston's profile.
The problem is in net. Jakub Dobes is .847 and has allowed about 6.2 goals more than expected. Team-wide, the Canadiens aren't nearly as bad as that makes them look.
Expected goals don't award points. Montreal still needs more saves and more finishing. But I'd take a 5-3-2 team creating chances over a 7-3 team getting outplayed every night.
THE DIT VERDICT: UNDERVALUED. (Opinion, medium confidence.) If the goaltending stabilizes, the points follow. They face Winnipeg tonight in the Heritage Classic (not included in these numbers).
9. Florida Panthers: Don't bury them yet
Record: 5-4-2 | 5v5 xG share: 54% | PDO: 96.2
The preseason Cup favorite (+650, 107.5-point line) is on a 92-point pace, and Aleksander Barkov is on long-term injured reserve after two games back. That hurts.
But the Panthers' 54% xG share and 96.2 PDO (7.8% shooting, .884 save percentage) say bad luck has cost them more than bad play.
THE DIT VERDICT: PATIENCE. (Opinion, medium confidence.) Florida climbs, unless the Barkov injury drags on.
10. Edmonton Oilers: The McDavid experience
Record: 8-2-1 | Connor McDavid: 33 points in 11 games
That's 3.00 points per game, after 1.68 last season (138 points in 82). Leon Draisaitl has 12 goals. The power play is 35.1%, second in the NHL.
The catch: Edmonton's 5v5 xG share is 50%, just even. This is a star and special-teams record, not a dominant-team record. Goalie Devon Levi is out a few weeks (REPORTED).
THE DIT VERDICT: REAL, BUT VULNERABLE. (Opinion.) Edmonton is a contender, but a power play above 35% won't last all year.
11. The players breaking the script
Vasily Podkolzin, EDM: 12 points in 11 games, after 0.45 per game last year.
Alexis Lafrenière, NYR: 9 goals in 13 games (0.69 per game), after 0.29 last year.
Artturi Lehkonen, COL: 9 goals on 17 shots (52.9%). Enjoy it. Nobody sustains that.
Matvei Michkov, PHI: 8 goals on 19 shots (42.1%).
Logan Stankoven, CAR: 8 goals in 13 games, after 0.26 per game last year.
Evan Bouchard, EDM: 7 goals in 11 games, after 21 all of last season.
The stars are fine. Kirill Kaprizov and Draisaitl each have 12 goals, and Auston Matthews is at 1.46 points per game, up from 0.88.
Some stars are cold. Sidney Crosby is at 0.58 points per game, down from 1.09. Zach Werenski has no goals in 9 games. Robert Thomas and Wyatt Johnston have one goal each.
12. Rangers: The goaltending miracle
Igor Shesterkin is out for the season, and the Rangers are still 7-5-1 with the NHL's second-best penalty kill (92.3%). Dylan Garand, recalled from Hartford on Oct 1, has played 9 games at .900 with a shutout.
Covering ten games without a franchise goalie is one thing. Covering 70 is another. (Opinion: I expect a slide.)
13. The final verdict
Buy: Carolina, Utah, New Jersey. All three win on 5v5 play, not luck.
Questioning: Boston and Seattle run on percentages. Ottawa (8-4-0) leans on Linus Ullmark (.945, +8.4 goals saved above expected), and goalies that hot rarely hold.
Worried: Vancouver is broken, Philadelphia has the worst underlying numbers, and Los Angeles and Chicago need answers fast.
Deserve more credit: Florida and Montreal. Both have shot data that is better than their record.
THE DIT REPORT: My big prediction
By Christmas, the Devils will be ahead of the Bruins in the standings. (Confidence: medium. I'd call it 60-40.)
Boston's percentages have to come down. New Jersey leads the NHL in xG share and just fixed its biggest problem in net.
The standings tell you who's winning now. The underlying numbers help explain who keeps winning.
Your turn: Is Boston a real Cup contender, or does this cool off? Are the Devils the most dangerous team in the East? And which struggling team is in the deepest trouble? Tell me in the replies.