Analytics / Power rankings

NHL Power Rankings

All 32 teams ranked by Concourse Elo, with each team's chance of making the playoffs and winning the Stanley Cup. Odds as of Wed, Oct 28.

NHL power rankings by Concourse Elo with playoff and Cup odds. Column headings sort the table.
1–
CARCarolina Hurricanes
99%21%
2–
COLColorado Avalanche
90%11%
3–
TBLTampa Bay Lightning
83%7.2%
4▲2
MINMinnesota Wild
94%8.0%
5▼1
VGKVegas Golden Knights
93%7.9%
6▼1
DALDallas Stars
86%6.2%
7▲2
BOSBoston Bruins
79%4.5%
8▲4
MTLMontréal Canadiens
70%4.0%
9▲1
BUFBuffalo Sabres
54%2.9%
10▼3
EDMEdmonton Oilers
90%5.1%
11–
WSHWashington Capitals
64%3.3%
12▼4
OTTOttawa Senators
59%2.7%
13–
UTAUtah Mammoth
73%2.7%
14▲1
FLAFlorida Panthers
50%1.7%
15▲4
NJDNew Jersey Devils
56%1.9%
16–
STLSt. Louis Blues
47%1.4%
17▲1
PITPittsburgh Penguins
32%<1%
18▲2
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets
31%<1%
19▼5
NYRNew York Rangers
32%<1%
20▼3
NYINew York Islanders
34%<1%
21▲6
TORToronto Maple Leafs
26%<1%
22▲3
DETDetroit Red Wings
20%<1%
23–
NSHNashville Predators
36%<1%
24▼3
WPGWinnipeg Jets
29%<1%
25▼3
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers
11%<1%
26–
SEASeattle Kraken
53%<1%
27▼3
ANAAnaheim Ducks
33%<1%
28–
LAKLos Angeles Kings
25%<1%
29▲1
CGYCalgary Flames
26%<1%
30▼1
SJSSan Jose Sharks
22%<1%
31–
CHIChicago Blackhawks
2.5%<1%
32–
VANVancouver Canucks
1.3%<1%

How these are made

What Elo is
A single rating for how well a team has been playing. It ranks results, not rosters on paper. Read the Concourse Elo definition
How a result moves it
A win raises a team's rating and a loss lowers it. The move is bigger when the opponent was strong and bigger when the margin was wide, so beating a weak team barely changes it.
Home edge
The home team gets a 30 point Elo boost when the chance of winning a game is worked out.
Summer reset
Each summer a team keeps 65% of its distance from the 1,500 average, so its rating moves 35% of the way back. A new team starts at 1,500.
Playoff and Cup odds
Each night the rest of the season is played out 20,000 times using these ratings and the real standings rules. The odds are the share of those runs in which a team makes the playoffs or wins the Cup. Head-to-head and goal-differential tiebreakers are not simulated. Read how playoff odds work

Playoff odds

Eastern Conference

Eastern Conference playoff odds by round, best Playoffs % first
TeamPlayoffsDivisionRound 2Conf. FinalFinalCup
CARCarolina Hurricanes
99%82%71%50%32%21%
TBLTampa Bay Lightning
83%31%47%26%13%7.2%
BOSBoston Bruins
79%24%40%20%9.3%4.5%
MTLMontréal Canadiens
70%16%35%17%7.9%4.0%
WSHWashington Capitals
64%6.8%33%13%6.6%3.3%
OTTOttawa Senators
59%9.7%27%13%5.9%2.7%
NJDNew Jersey Devils
56%5.1%26%9.9%4.3%1.9%
BUFBuffalo Sabres
54%8.6%25%13%5.7%2.9%
FLAFlorida Panthers
50%6.8%21%9.9%4.0%1.7%
NYINew York Islanders
34%1.8%14%4.7%2.0%<1%
NYRNew York Rangers
32%1.5%14%4.7%2.0%<1%
PITPittsburgh Penguins
32%1.5%14%5.0%2.1%<1%
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets
31%1.6%13%4.6%2.1%<1%
TORToronto Maple Leafs
26%1.8%9.1%3.8%1.3%<1%
DETDetroit Red Wings
20%1.4%7.0%2.9%1.1%<1%
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers
11%<1%3.9%1.4%<1%<1%

Western Conference

Western Conference playoff odds by round, best Playoffs % first
TeamPlayoffsDivisionRound 2Conf. FinalFinalCup
MINMinnesota Wild
94%38%54%29%16%8.0%
VGKVegas Golden Knights
93%47%58%34%17%7.9%
COLColorado Avalanche
90%27%55%32%20%11%
EDMEdmonton Oilers
90%38%51%26%12%5.1%
DALDallas Stars
86%19%45%23%13%6.2%
UTAUtah Mammoth
73%10%32%14%6.9%2.7%
SEASeattle Kraken
53%6.8%21%7.8%2.7%<1%
STLSt. Louis Blues
47%2.9%19%8.5%3.8%1.4%
NSHNashville Predators
36%1.6%13%5.0%2.0%<1%
ANAAnaheim Ducks
33%2.7%13%5.5%1.9%<1%
WPGWinnipeg Jets
29%1.1%9.9%4.1%1.6%<1%
CGYCalgary Flames
26%1.9%9.8%3.8%1.4%<1%
LAKLos Angeles Kings
25%1.6%10%4.0%1.3%<1%
SJSSan Jose Sharks
22%1.5%7.9%2.8%<1%<1%
CHIChicago Blackhawks
2.5%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
VANVancouver Canucks
1.3%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%

Playoff odds this season

The trend chart appears after a week of daily updates.

Updated nightly · 20,000 simulations of the remaining schedule · how it works →